The World Bank's 2008 Little Data Book on Africa (.pdf) might also have been called the Little Book of Horrors. It describes a world of human beings living at the extremes of poverty and at the edge of a precarious existence, particularly children under five years old.
I ran some of the data from sub-Saharan countries where there are more than 200 deaths per thousand for under-5-year-olds to try to get some correlations between:
- The amounts of aid flowing into a country as a percentage of GDP.
- The per capita GDP.
- And the number of deaths per thousand for under-5-year-olds.
I found that there isn't much of one. Both oil-rich Angola and Equatorial Guinea, which both have less than 1 percent of aid as a percentage of GDP, have about the same deaths per thousand of children under five as countries which are much more aid dependent.
What's striking is that these two oil-rich countries boast per capita GDPs far above the average -- less than $300 -- for sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, with Angola at $1,069 and Equatorial Guinea at an astounding $7,470. If a measure of a country's performance is how it uses its wealth to protect its young, then both Angola and Equatorial Guinea have to be rated as failures, as they have the same or slightly worse mortality rates for under-5-year-olds than Liberia (per capita GDP $134) and Mali (per capita GDP $290.)
What's striking is that in the band of countries with under-five mortality rates greater than 200 per thousand, the amount of aid as a percentage of GDP runs from .3 percent to 43.8 percent. This suggests that massive amounts of aid in Africa might be good for some things but not necessarily for reaching one's 6th birthday.
(First published April 29th in World Politics Review)
Showing posts with label World Bank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Bank. Show all posts
Thursday, July 23, 2009
The Millenium Development Goals Have Left the Building
What many suspected has just been confirmed by a new report, African Economic Outlook 2008/2009, issued by the African Development Bank, the OECD Development Center and the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa. According to the report, the continent will be "gravely" affected by the global economic downturn:
Following half a decade of above 5 percent economic growth, the continent can expect only 2.8 percent in 2009, less than half of the 5.7 per cent expected before the crisis. The authors anticipate growth rebounding to 4.5 per cent in 2010. Growth in oil-exporting countries is expected to fall to 2.4 per cent in 2009 compared to 3.3 per cent for the net oil importers.
One of the hardest hit regions will be Southern Africa, where even economic powerhouse South Africa will see its growth rate fall to 1.1 percent due to falling prices and demand in the mineral sector and depressed consumption and investment in the domestic economy. This does not bode well for the new South African administration of Jacob Zuma, whose millions of supporters are expecting some taste of the country's economic benefits that have thus far eluded them.
The least statistically affected region will be West Africa, which contains oil-rich Nigeria as well as economic basket-cases Liberia and Sierra Leone. Nigeria will tick downwards because of slowing investment and OPEC restrictions, but other poorer countries will continue their upward trajectory based solely on the profound weakness of their starting positions.
Nevertheless, the report takes pains to point out that the situation will likely create a situation where "tensions could explode" due to shortages of food and basic living necessities. Many major international deals that would have generated billions in foreign investment and employment opportunities have been put on hold. Foreign aid will simply serve to keep the boats afloat, not move them forward.
This is why World Bank President Robert Zoelleck recently warned that the crisis will cast 50 million or more people back into dire poverty. To claim that the 2015 Millennium Development Goals are looking unreachable is an understatement. We may be heading back to the starting line with regard to African development, which makes it a perfect time to make some hard decisions on the aid vs. trade debate now roaring through academia. If this crisis proves anything to Africans, it is that they are dealing with unstable and unreliable benefactors and that self-sufficiency ought to become their mantra.
(First published May 11th in World Politics Review)
Following half a decade of above 5 percent economic growth, the continent can expect only 2.8 percent in 2009, less than half of the 5.7 per cent expected before the crisis. The authors anticipate growth rebounding to 4.5 per cent in 2010. Growth in oil-exporting countries is expected to fall to 2.4 per cent in 2009 compared to 3.3 per cent for the net oil importers.
One of the hardest hit regions will be Southern Africa, where even economic powerhouse South Africa will see its growth rate fall to 1.1 percent due to falling prices and demand in the mineral sector and depressed consumption and investment in the domestic economy. This does not bode well for the new South African administration of Jacob Zuma, whose millions of supporters are expecting some taste of the country's economic benefits that have thus far eluded them.
The least statistically affected region will be West Africa, which contains oil-rich Nigeria as well as economic basket-cases Liberia and Sierra Leone. Nigeria will tick downwards because of slowing investment and OPEC restrictions, but other poorer countries will continue their upward trajectory based solely on the profound weakness of their starting positions.
Nevertheless, the report takes pains to point out that the situation will likely create a situation where "tensions could explode" due to shortages of food and basic living necessities. Many major international deals that would have generated billions in foreign investment and employment opportunities have been put on hold. Foreign aid will simply serve to keep the boats afloat, not move them forward.
This is why World Bank President Robert Zoelleck recently warned that the crisis will cast 50 million or more people back into dire poverty. To claim that the 2015 Millennium Development Goals are looking unreachable is an understatement. We may be heading back to the starting line with regard to African development, which makes it a perfect time to make some hard decisions on the aid vs. trade debate now roaring through academia. If this crisis proves anything to Africans, it is that they are dealing with unstable and unreliable benefactors and that self-sufficiency ought to become their mantra.
(First published May 11th in World Politics Review)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
