tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63899886178510117782024-03-12T19:14:09.151-07:00AfriwebA collection of ideas, reviews, and revelations on contemporary Africa.Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-4210270483355065392011-08-25T14:39:00.000-07:002011-08-25T14:43:33.130-07:00General Butt Naked Redeems Something<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xhiBgT3xHo4/TlbB__Gav9I/AAAAAAAAADE/XrmPO9lhZGs/s1600/Blahyi.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 134px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xhiBgT3xHo4/TlbB__Gav9I/AAAAAAAAADE/XrmPO9lhZGs/s200/Blahyi.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5644912487969767378" /></a>
<br />Here is a <a href="http://freeafricanmedia.com/article/2011-03-13-film-review-the-uneasy-redemption-of-naked-evil-but-naked">link</a> to a review about the Liberian militia leader Butt Naked that first appeared on the Free African Media website.Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-68084624587558067302011-08-25T14:35:00.000-07:002011-08-25T14:38:28.881-07:00Interview With Greg Stemn<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VYRO9O7XVD4/TlbAzrpVcKI/AAAAAAAAAC8/s52r8cMg2xU/s1600/men-standing.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 136px; height: 200px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VYRO9O7XVD4/TlbAzrpVcKI/AAAAAAAAAC8/s52r8cMg2xU/s200/men-standing.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5644911177077452962" /></a>
<br />Here is a <a href="http://freeafricanmedia.com/article/2011-02-27-photojournalist-gregory-stemn-on-living-and-documenting-the-war-in-liberia">link</a> to an interview I did with my friend Gregory Stemn that appeared on the South African website Free African Media.Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-33224032102425022962011-08-25T14:26:00.000-07:002011-08-25T14:47:05.909-07:00In Liberia, NeedyMedia Needs Help<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hBAc6ZWqO1Y/Tla_H9CpJ7I/AAAAAAAAAC0/wFtpTp3GwCI/s1600/LiberiaF.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 134px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hBAc6ZWqO1Y/Tla_H9CpJ7I/AAAAAAAAAC0/wFtpTp3GwCI/s200/LiberiaF.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5644909326321133490" /></a>
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<br />Last week in steamy, rain-soaked Monrovia, anticipation for the World Cup aside, I could already sense the buzz building around presidential elections scheduled for October of 2011. In the coming contest—only the second presidential election since the end of the civil war—Liberians will decide whether to reelect Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Africa’s first female head of state, for a second term. Just as the daily downpours fill the potholes that mar almost every road in Liberia, giving the illusion of a smooth passable surface, Liberia’s airwaves and newspapers will soon be filled with the political propaganda of the candidates.
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<br />While Liberia is certainly not a repressive environment compared to other countries in matters of free speech and press freedom, the profound lack of resources that the Liberian media has at its disposal creates a kind of de facto censorship. Outlets cannot cover the candidates to the depth necessary, and are vulnerable to the ethical lapses that often occur in media environments where survival trumps professional journalistic practice.
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<br />Besides talks of soccer, particularly concerns about the condition of injured Ivorian superstar Didier Drogba, speculation on who might be a worthy contender to succeed Sirleaf was part of almost every conversation my Newhouse School colleague Ken Harper and I were in. Most educated people read several newspapers, listen to the local stations as well as UNMIL radio, the voice of the U.N. military mission, as well as the BBC, VOA, and now the Chinese- and English-language news. As the election season heats up, the Liberians will increasingly rely on the media to help them sort out the issues, define the platforms of the candidates and investigate the claims and counter-claims that will be gushing forth from the propaganda machines of the candidates.
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<br />While Sirleaf may experience nothing but accolades when she travels abroad, in Monrovia she is a more controversial figure. The local media have been pounding her administration for the past several years with allegations of corruption, sexual scandals and incompetence. The Monrovia-based New Democrat newspaper ran an extended piece last week suggesting how it was international lawyers, rather than administration officials, who saved the country from entering into seriously disadvantageous natural resource deals.
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<br />Incidentally, Tom Kamara, the editor of the New Democrat, said his newspaper’s Web site was brought down by hackers two times in the past month. The newspaper is also battling legal action from the government threatening its existence: a libel lawsuit seeking a million dollars in damages and a claim for $2 million in alleged unpaid taxes. When I asked Tom if he thought someone was trying to take him off the board, he just laughed. “They are trying to put me out of business, but I will carry on.” He said.
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<br />When the hackers damaged his Web site, they left a message on the home page: “Your hatred feeds our power.” For Tom, their fear feeds his courage. Of all the newspapers in Monrovia, the New Democrat has been relentless in its coverage of the Charles Taylor trial and revealing the details coming from the testimony that most other media outlets in Monrovia would prefer to ignore.
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<br />Editors like Tom Kamara, or Rodney Sieh, the editor of Front Page Africa who recently returned from exile in the U.S., are bringing a new style of journalism to Monrovia with good, solid reporting, extended analysis of major issues, and a certain fearlessness in dealing with entrenched power. It’s no coincidence that both papers also have their own printing presses on the premises, which prevents the authorities from easily shutting them down (as they sometimes do to the papers that rely on the sole newspaper printing business in town). Despite his problems with the government, Tom Kamara has a picture of Sirleaf pinned above his press. He says he has no animosity for her or her government, but neither does he want to sacrifice the truth in the name of some false notion of civic solidarity.
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<br />It is also the case that Kamara, as well as Sieh, pay their reporters and staff better wages than their competitors so they are able to attract the best and offer quality, independent reporting. This is unfortunately the exception rather than the norm in Liberia’s media landscape. My friends at Star Radio, for instance, are currently experiencing severe cash-flow problems that have forced management to curtail services and cut back on staff and salaries. This is a pity because in Liberia, Star Radio is one of the few trusted sources of nonbiased information. As often happens in post-conflict situation, donor fatigue sets in (in Star’s case major donors have been the Swiss foundation Hirondelle and USAID), but management is still not capable of managing their numbers. Part of the problem is a lack of advertising revenue potential but a major issue is a lack of know-how. One reporter told me that management “has forced us to become beggars.”
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<br />It is a fact that in Liberia, as in many developing countries, the media is under-resourced. Certain newspapers have sought to blackmail politicians and businesspeople, while crying foul when they are threatened with lawsuits or sanctions. These practices have allowed Sirleaf, on occasion, to dismiss critical coverage by accusing the independent media of being “checkbook journalists.” In fact, there is always speculation around town about which editors are “in the bag” with the current administration and which are fighting for the opposition, or perhaps for just some sort of positive change.
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<br />Next year, Liberian media will be the world’s witnesses and the country’s watchdog to the unfolding of a campaign that will be hard-fought and one where the interests of ordinary Liberians will hang in the balance. The capital will be saturated with advertisements, talk-show appearances and public rallies. In the countryside, however, particularly places like the remote cities of Fishtown or Harper, where there are few passable roads during the rainy season, the local population may remain starved for information. In fact, I am not sure there is one newspaper in Liberia that owns a four-wheel drive vehicle.
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<br />As the election season heats up, the threats and intimidation will likely increase, but there is a real question of whether the information needs of ordinary people can be served by journalists who are pressed by survival needs and whether such an environment can be said to be free. Democracy has proven to be a fragile and often elusive commodity in Liberia. Without a strengthened media partner in the election process, its fragility will likely be tested again.
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<br />This first appeared on the website of the Committee to Protect Journalists. June 2010Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-75225601408440427502010-02-11T10:45:00.000-08:002010-02-16T07:35:48.789-08:00Is Jacob Zuma the Tiger Woods of African Politics?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://southernafrica.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/zuma1.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 377px; height: 500px;" src="http://southernafrica.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/zuma1.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br />A letter from a student to the president<br /> <br /><br />Dear Mr President Jacob Zuma<br /> <br />After having read the front page story of the Sunday Times (31/01/2010), I feel compelled to write to you as this ordinary citizen that I am. Because I am a commoner, my judgment of your actions could be regarded as disrespect. Equally you might be indulging in all these sordid acts because you feel that you cannot be questioned and brought to book.<br /> <br /> As a young man I have an interest in the way in which those in power are behaving, so as to ensure that we have good, moral and ethical leaders to look upon. A public figure who does not inspire confidence or does not conduct themselves in a manner that seek to inspire development of society, should be eliminated from the limelight and sent into the deepest of corners so that their misleading acts are shunned. To me you happen to be such an individual.<br /> <br /> In your address during your inauguration and also in your first State of the Nation address, you emphasized greatly on moral regeneration. The reason why religion has seemingly failed to produce members that embody the values taught in religious institutions is because the preachers themselves are failing to be upright leaders who live out what they preach. You are such a preacher to me.<br /> <br /> Given your past record that displays you as a man who is easily tempted by indulging in sexual intercourse, it is very difficult for me to throw water over the claims made by the Sunday Times. To me it is irrelevant that the person you impregnated is the daughter of Dr Irvin "The Iron Duke" Khoza, I would still feel the same way even if it was just yet another woman. If this baby was born under normal circumstances, it means that you must have slept with this lady around January 2009.<br /><br /> During the same time you had already paid Lobola for Thobeka Madiba-Zuma and you were planning your wedding day with her. At the same time you were already having the pleasure of being attended to by two wives. I suppose given that you were busy campaigning for the 2009 General<br />Elections, the challenges that you faced couldn't be accommodated by<br />your wives, you needed to find solace and release your masculine energy<br />on another woman outside wedlock.<br /> <br />What nauseates me the most is the fact that this lady got pregnant,<br />meaning you had unprotected sex yet again. To me it is clear that you<br />have unprotected sex with your wives, because you do it so easily with<br />"omakhwapheni". It means you are a risk to your wives, because you seem<br />to be fishing for HIV, so that you can take the catch home and<br />distribute it evenly amongst them. Unless there is preventive medication for HIV that you have and we the ordinary people do not have access to.<br /> <br />The Zulu Kingdom should be ashamed at how you have paraded their culture of polygamy, a culture that is in fact to me very demeaning of women. To me it symbolizes true qualities of chauvinism and patriarchy, whereby if a man is not satisfied with one woman, then they can go get another. Meanwhile society would vilify a woman who would take a second man. Polygamy also promotes cheating on your wife, because you must first know the second wife, well in your case sixth, intimately on stolen moments away from your wife. So during that time you are lying to your wife or wives claiming to be seeing no one besides them and even to God, whom you made such a pact with when getting married.<br /> <br />Polygamy reduces women to objects that are used to just satisfy the egos of many men out there, who see having many women as a sense of<br />superiority and achievement. To me this is a very small minded sense of<br />thinking.<br /> <br />I cannot have you preach morality to me when you partake in such<br />disgusting acts that make me feel if only I was not a South African.<br />When a sex scandal broke off about Mr Bill Clinton, he had to step down<br />as President of the USA . The President of the World Bank stepped down<br />after such allegations were tabled against him. However to you it is<br />just yet another day another dollar and nothing will happen, because you are hiding behind tradition and using it to camouflage your helpless sexuality.<br /> <br />You are a man who does not respect women clearly, a man who does not<br />believe in treating your wives with the best respect they deserve. I<br />doubt maKhumalo is happily married to you, but she is probably fearful<br />of what shall become of her if she were to leave you. It is unfortunate<br />that the majority of the people in your organization find your acts<br />acceptable; it goes to show how the morals of the ANC have become<br />fragmented over the years.<br /> <br />You occupy the highest seat in our land and many people will find a way<br />of using your acts to justify their mistakes and atrocious behaviors<br />which resemble yours. You are not a beacon of hope to me, but rather<br />that one of disaster.<br /> <br />It is impossible that you could raise all your 20 children, so it means<br />that you promote unstructured families whereby kids grow up with single<br />parents. You promote and justify cheating. You promote for society to<br />discredit the three pillars of fighting HIV, because you do not Abstain, you do not get to Be Faithful, you do not Condomize.<br /> <br />What are you good for? Absolutely nothing. You are shaming our country<br />and making it seem as if we are unable to be led by principled leaders.<br /> <br />You are a health risk to your wives, you are a financial risk to the<br />taxpayers who must pay for your opulence and you still pledge your<br />support to communists.<br /> <br />I ask of you to step down as President, before you turn South Africa<br />into a quagmire that resembles your sexual life and its animalistic<br />behaviors.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Written by: Lukhona MnguniMichael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-51772041707982738372009-12-05T07:41:00.000-08:002009-12-05T07:46:10.651-08:00Africa's Development in the 21st Century: A ReviewFrankly, trying to address the ills facing the African continent in 40 pages is like trying to gather in a school of tuna with a butterfly net. You have to wonder what the Nordic Africa Institute, the sponsor of this work, was trying to achieve. <br /><br />Nevertheless, Fantu Cheru’s treatise, 'Africa’s Development Agenda in the 21st Century: Reshaping the Research Agenda', is an earnest attempt to provide a roadmap for a new path towards African development. Cheru’s dispassionate lens briskly sweeps across the major issues of agriculture, urbanisation, globalisation, peace and conflict in a survey of all the ills that the continent faces. Unfortunately, he misses some of the major and perhaps most intractable ones. <br /><br />He states that 'the development challenge in Africa is multidimensional and conventional development orthodoxies are inadequate to address it.' He then proposes five pillars of development for rebuilding Africa: reverse the failure in agriculture; reverse the decline in higher education; strengthen regional integration; expand the governance reform agenda; and prevent deadly conflicts. These dictums should strike even the most casual reader as both obvious and conventional. <br /><br />Search as I might, I couldn’t find one exciting new approach to the challenges of development. There was scant mention of issues like corruption, HIV/AIDS, the possibilities for communication and bio-technologies, the impact of transnational drug and weapons flows, the dangers of China’s unique brand of self-serving ‘assistance’, reforming the World Bank and IMF (International Monetary Fund) agendas and the bilateral aid system, or the impact that climate change, economic meltdowns or the global jihad will have on Africa in the new century. What Cheru has given us is a policy paper that could have come directly off the World Bank’s website 10 years ago. <br /><br />At this point one has to ask, what is Africa? Is it Botswana or Guinea-Bissau? Is it Swaziland or the Democratic Republic of Congo? Of course it is all of them. But they won’t develop in remotely similar ways. In fact, there should actually be a moratorium on the use of the word Africa in book titles related to development. Just that one modification would force well-intentioned thinkers like Famu to investigate more deeply and see what might actually work in a particular case, rather than what ought to work for everyone. <br /><br />Famu should also pay more respect to the historical record. He calls the conflicts in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Angola 'the most deadly' without putting into the same category the war in the Congo, which has claimed several million deaths, or the wars in Mozambique, Sudan or even the wars of his own country Ethiopia with Eritrea. The section on conflict is the weakest in the text. In addition to committing factual errors such as claiming that Liberia’s President Samuel Doe was killed by supporters of Charles Taylor, rather than by Taylor’s arch-rival Prince Johnson (caught live on video tape), Famu submits that localising conflict resolution is the key to preventing conflict in African states in addition to 'changes in the social and political order'. Advice like this is veridical but hardly a reshaping of anyone’s agenda. He also promotes such dubious contrivances as the African Union inspired Panel of the Wise, which has accomplished nothing of significance since its creation in 2007. <br /><br />If Africa must rely on the African Union or talk-shops like ECOWAS (Economic Community Of West African States) to solve its endemic conflicts, then pity the poor African. Even in West Africa, where Liberia and Sierra Leone seem to be making baby-step progress, Guinea is heading in the opposite direction. What good has the African Union been in Guinea, or Guinea-Bissau or Equatorial Guinea, where thugs rule civil society and the word democracy is a tasteless pretence on the tongues of vampire elites? <br /><br />In fairness Famu’s text has two strong recommendations: the need to assist urban slum dwellers who are multiplying exponentially but who rarely get a nod from the donor community; and the need to strengthen tertiary education, which has been embarrassingly ignored by the donor community. There is a great danger that with the newly inspired focus on reforming agriculture, the millions of young people growing up in urban slums will simply be left out of everyone’s ‘agenda'. It is certainly a lot easier to give a bag of seeds to an impoverished farmer than it is to find jobs for slum-dwelling, semi-literate, 20-year-old ex-combatants. One problem is that when the world thinks Africa it thinks poor peasant farmer, while the reality is that Africa, like most of the developing world, is urbanising at a rapid clip, and to say in an unplanned manner would not be ungenerous. <br /><br />Brevity can sometimes be a virtue, but in the case of Professor Famu’s agenda it undermines its message by leaving out the urgency and anger.<br /><br />Published by Pambazuka 12/03/09 Issue No. 460<br />http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/books/60699Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-2347422617888495022009-07-23T13:11:00.000-07:002009-07-23T13:24:54.063-07:00Amadou and Mariam<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.casafree.com/modules/xcgal/albums/userpics/35338/normal_az_2756_Je%20Pense%20a%20Toi%20The%20Best%20of%20Amadou%20et%20Mariam_Amadou%20%26%20Mariam.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 400px;" src="http://www.casafree.com/modules/xcgal/albums/userpics/35338/normal_az_2756_Je%20Pense%20a%20Toi%20The%20Best%20of%20Amadou%20et%20Mariam_Amadou%20%26%20Mariam.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><br />I first heard this dynamic duo from Mali at one of those listening kiosks at the Virgin record store in Paris. (Remember record stores? Apparently the French still have a liking for them.) Then I missed them when they came to Cambridge this summer. Lately I saw them in a compilation brought out by the folks at Starbuck's who I must say have decent taste at least in the opinion of this child of the 60's.)<br /><br /><a href="http://www.myspace.com/amadouandmariam">Check out</a> their MySpace page.Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-80335646124597089342009-07-23T12:54:00.000-07:002009-07-24T10:57:41.244-07:00It's Africa's Downturn NextIn what he described as an impending ‘economic tsunami’ , Britain’s Development Minister Douglas Alexander has called upon the developed world not to forsake their promises and obligations to the world’s poor, regardless of the current state of the world economy. Speaking to the BBC yesterday Alexander warned that as many as 90 million people would be ‘pushed back’ into extreme poverty and that the very real gains in economic progress that many African countries have experience over the past few years would be in peril. His suggestion for action, in a move similar to one announced by Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank, would be to set up special funds that would, in effect, be a special stimulus package for the world’s poor. Alexander also warned the developed world about the perils of protectionism and to encourage aid-on-top-of-trade to countries in the developing world.<br /><br />These are bold and encouraging words coming from Britain, a country which has pledged to maintain its foreign aid commitments. The question for leaders of the G20 meeting London in April is whether the political risks of continuing their foreign aid outflows will be accepted by their constituents. Obviously, as the global crisis deepens, it will be harder and harder for Western politicians to continue to push foreign aid transfers through their legislatures, no matter how much pressure Bono or Jeffrey Sachs put on them.<br /><br />On the ground in Africa, the effects of the global downturn were already being felt by the end of last last year as commodity prices fell and work was slowed or halted in Zambian copper mines and bauxite pits in Guinea. In countries with no social security or unemployment insurance and where private companies, not governments, supply essential services like energy, housing and health-care, the shutting of even a single mine can dramatically effect the lives of thousands of people.<br /><br />We can certainly forgive the leaders of the G20 for turning their short-term focus on solving the international banking crisis and on stimulating their own economies. However, it must be said, that a real stress test of the moral character of the Western free-market system will take place when new aid budgets and trade policies are decided upon and announced in the coming years. After years of pounding the principles of free market economics and the glories of globalization into the heads of African leaders, it would be morally bankrupt to now turn our collective backs. Opponents of current policies might argue that this is a great opportunity for African leaders to wean themselves of foreign aid and begin to focus on developing real economies. There would certainly be nothing wrong with this outcome except that their dependence on natural resource exports and a lack of economic diversification make such a leap all but impossible in a world where commodity demand is shrinking and where trade barriers might start growing again.<br /><br />Average Africans have much more to fear than fear itself. Who has the courage to stick by them?<br /><br />(First published by the Harvard International Review, March 10th 2009)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-40270327952631431552009-07-23T12:48:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:50:38.895-07:00Piggy BanksOn top of all the bad news surrounding international banking we can add to the list the findings of a just published report ( Undue Diligence : How Banks Do Business With Corrupt Regimes) from the anti-corruption NGO Global Witness.<br /><br />The report, although dealing with somewhat dated material, nevertheless paints a devastating portrait of how some of the largest and formerly most prestigious international banks have been complicit in laundering the ill-gotten gains of the some of the world’s most unsavory regimes. Despite the existence of a whole host of regulations and public commitments to social responsibility on the part of institutions like Citibank, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, etc. the report condemns these institutions for doing the minimum amount of due-diligence and exploiting every loophole to avoid turning down lucrative deposits.<br /><br />In my posting last week I made some comments about Equatorial Guinea which were responded to at length by someone from the EG Embassy in London. Although my Spanish is hardly fluent I was able to discern that I was being accused of slandering and perpetuating negative stereotypes about EG.<br /><br />Lo and behold, but who should top the list of Global Witnesses’ list- of- shame but Equatorial Guinea and their partners in crime, first the now-defunct Riggs Bank, and more recently Barclays.<br /><br />Management of the country’s vast oil wealth remains a ‘state secret’ according to President Teodoro Nguema Obiang. He has ruled since 1979 when he executed his brutal uncle to seize power, and has maintained his power through repression and human rights abuses. Members of Obiang’s family control key government ministries. Opposition parties are banned, and political prisoners are beaten and tortured in custody.<br /><br /> Meanwhile, the ruling family continues to enrich itself. At the end of 2006 Global Witness revealed that the president’s playboy son had bought a new $35 million dollar home in California. He has been reported as earning a $4,000 a month salary as the country’s Minister of Agriculture and Forestry.<br /><br />But not to appear as unfairly picking on EG, it should be noted that Gabon, Republic of Congo, Angola, Charles Taylor’s Liberia, Turkmenistan and their cohort of international deposit-takers also make the list.<br /><br />The main recommendation of the report is that now that the world seems to be getting serious about regulating shameless bankers it should also close all the loopholes and address all the convenient ambiguities which allow resource riches from desperately poor countries to find their way into international bank accounts - now matter how desperately these shattered institutions might need them. <br /><br />(First Published March 22, 2009 in Harvard International Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-38362535255455238492009-07-23T12:39:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:41:44.040-07:00Paul Kagame's Fan Club GrowsWhat do Bill Clinton, the Rev. Rick Warren, Harvard's Michael Porter, and Google's Eric Schmidt all have in common? According to Philip Gourevitch, writing in this week's New Yorker, they are all friends of Rwandan President Paul Kagame -- part of his "kitchen cabinet" of advisers. Like Stephen Kinzer of the New York Times, Gourevitch has definitively fallen under the spell of Kagame and his ambition to turn Rwanda into the Singapore of Central Africa.<br /><br />There are, however, several assertions in this piece which are a bit dodgy, not least of which are Gourevitch's estimates of the numbers killed in the 1994 genocide. Most reports put the number at 800,000, with anywhere from 10-20 percent of those actually being moderate Hutus. Gourevitch simply says a million Tutsis. <br /><br />That may seem like a minor quibble, but I think it reflects the underlying problem with Gourevitch's somewhat starry-eyed analysis. In his shattering accounts of the genocide published in 1998, Gourevitch brought us up close and personal with both victims and perpetrators. It was great reportage. Not much big picture needed.<br /><br />At the time it seemed like a clear-cut case of good and evil, with Kagame coming across as George Washington, David Ben-Gurion and Gen. Patton rolled into one painfully thin looking Tutsi warlord. The problem is that even back then, Gourevitch seems to have bought Kagame's line that the mass killings occurring in the Congo -- some estimates say up to 5 million, mostly civilians -- many of which were being carried out by Rwandan troops or their proxies, were somehow justified because of the genocide.<br /><br />Over the course of the latter conflict, Rwanda-based mining interests (which have yet to sign on to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative) have been accused of plundering the riches of neighboring Congo in the "fog of war" created by Rwanda's 15-year crusade to bring every last génocidaire to justice. No one can argue that the Rwandans have the right to seek justice. But for Gourevtich to take on face value Kagame's claim that his government didn't "supply anything" to the recently deposed Congolese-Tutsi militia leader Laurent Nkunda is disingenuous at best.<br /><br />According to the Economist, the U.N. has plenty of evidence to the contrary, and one wonders why Gourevitch doesn't at least mention it -- never mind asking Kagame about it.<br /><br />The best part of the article was the photo of Paul Kagame by brilliant South African photographer Pieter Hugo. Check out his other work here. <br /><br />(First published May 1, 2009 in World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-26695426544829364492009-07-23T12:38:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:39:31.693-07:00The World Bank's Little Book of HorrorsThe World Bank's 2008 Little Data Book on Africa (.pdf) might also have been called the Little Book of Horrors. It describes a world of human beings living at the extremes of poverty and at the edge of a precarious existence, particularly children under five years old.<br /><br />I ran some of the data from sub-Saharan countries where there are more than 200 deaths per thousand for under-5-year-olds to try to get some correlations between:<br /><br />- The amounts of aid flowing into a country as a percentage of GDP.<br />- The per capita GDP.<br />- And the number of deaths per thousand for under-5-year-olds.<br /><br />I found that there isn't much of one. Both oil-rich Angola and Equatorial Guinea, which both have less than 1 percent of aid as a percentage of GDP, have about the same deaths per thousand of children under five as countries which are much more aid dependent. <br /><br />What's striking is that these two oil-rich countries boast per capita GDPs far above the average -- less than $300 -- for sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, with Angola at $1,069 and Equatorial Guinea at an astounding $7,470. If a measure of a country's performance is how it uses its wealth to protect its young, then both Angola and Equatorial Guinea have to be rated as failures, as they have the same or slightly worse mortality rates for under-5-year-olds than Liberia (per capita GDP $134) and Mali (per capita GDP $290.)<br /><br />What's striking is that in the band of countries with under-five mortality rates greater than 200 per thousand, the amount of aid as a percentage of GDP runs from .3 percent to 43.8 percent. This suggests that massive amounts of aid in Africa might be good for some things but not necessarily for reaching one's 6th birthday.<br /><br />(First published April 29th in World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-2074800939666907712009-07-23T12:35:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:37:03.685-07:00South Africa Due for a ChuckleFor a really good analysis of the challenges facing South Africa in the now inaugurated "Jacob Zuma era," take a look at this piece by South African author/journalist William Gumede. Unlike his predecessor, Thabo Mbeki, who was something of a stick in the mud, Zuma promises to be a boon for political satirists and cartoonists. <br /><br />The controversial South African cartoonist, Zapiro, has already gotten a head start with his infamous caricature of Zuma that includes a shower head embedded in Zuma's skull, a reference to Zuma's remark that he never worries about getting AIDS because he showers after having sex. <br /><br />For another example of South African political humor, yesterday, I asked a friend in South Africa for her views on the election. This is what I got back. (DA refers to the opposition liberal party, Democratic Alliance, headed by white South African, Helen Zille): <br /><br />A woman in a hot air balloon realized she was lost. She lowered her altitude and spotted a man in a boat below. She shouted to him, "Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don't know where I am." <br /><br />The man consulted his portable GPS and replied, "You're in a hot air balloon, approximately 30 feet above a ground elevation of 2346 feet above sea level. You are at 31 degrees, 14.97 minutes north latitude and 100 degrees, 49.09 minutes west longitude." <br /><br />She rolled her eyes and said, "You must be a DA supporter!" <br /><br />"I am," replied the man. "How did you know?" <br /><br />"Well," answered the balloonist, "everything you told me is technically correct, but I have no idea what to do with your information, and I'm still lost. Frankly, you've not been much help to me." <br /><br />The man smiled and responded, "You must be an ANC government official" <br /><br />"I am," replied the balloonist. "How did you know?" <br /><br />"Well," said the man, "you don't know where you are or where you are going. You've risen to where you are due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise that you have no idea how to keep, and you expect me to solve your problem. You're in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but somehow, now it's my fault."<br /><br />(First published April 27th, World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-22013040574085750212009-07-23T12:32:00.001-07:002009-07-23T12:34:47.528-07:00The Sheen Comes off KagameWhat did the BBC do for Rwanda's information minister, Louise Mushikiwabo, to suspend their programs and call them "a real poison with regards to the reconciliation of the Rwandan people" yesterday?<br /><br />The Beeb broadcast an interview with former Prime Minister Faustin Twagiramungu, now living in Belgium, who said that as a Hutu, he could never apologize for the 1994 Genocide. (A Rwandan government spokesperson was invited to participate in the program, but declined.)<br /><br />This is not the first time that Mushikiwabo has taken issue with the BBC. Last August, according to a report by the Committee to Protect Journalists, Mushikiwabo threatened to shut down both the BBC and the Voice of America if they didn't stop their "non-factual" reporting.<br /><br />None of this should come as a surprise. In his hagiographic profile of Rwandan President Paul Kagame, "A Thousnad Hills," NY Times correspondent Stephen Kinzer points out that Kagame's role models are autocratric rulers like Singapore's Lee Kwan Yew and Malaysia's Mohammad Mahatir.<br /><br />Friends of Kagame's Rwanda, like Kinzer, suggest that all this censorship is necessary -- in the short term at least -- to keep harmony in a society that was traumatized by the 1994 genocide and whose faultlines remain volatile. Organizations like Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and Freedom House don't quite see it that way, and have consistently complained that social harmony in Rwanda is being achieved through the abregation of human rights.<br /><br />Much of what Paul Kagame has done in Rwanda is admirable and no doubt necessary. But after Rwanda's dubious adventures in the Congo and the steady diet of repressive measures that Rwandans have been subjected to, some of the sheen is coming off his image. In France, Kagame is officially viewed as a criminal, on a par with the perpetrators of the genocide, because of the heavy-handed revenge his soldiers took on defenseless Hutu civilians.<br /><br />U.S. policymakers will likely never take this line on Kagame, stemming in part from U.S. guilt over inaction during the genocide. But that's no reason to ignore ugly incidents of censorship and repression.<br /><br />(First Published April 27, 2009 in World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-82193993620484707482009-07-23T12:30:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:32:23.178-07:00Bring Zuma His Machine-GunThere were long odds against the corruption case of African National Congress leader Jacob Zuma going to trial in the midst of his bid to win the presidency in upcoming South African elections. As I have written in previous posts, the ANC is starting to bear an eerie resemblance to political parties elsewhere on the continent, in both its sense of entitlement as well as its manipulation of democratic processes. <br /><br />But now that South Africa's National Prosecuting Authority has decided not to pursue the case, the former head of the authority's elite Scorpions anti-corruption unit, Leonard McCarthy, is now in the hot seat. McCarthy, who currently leads an anti-corruption unit at the World Bank, was allegedly caught on tape discussing the timing of the release of incriminating evidence against Zuma with former South African president and Zuma rival, Thabo Mbeki. If true, McCarthy may have not only blown his biggest investigation from his time as head of the Scorpions, he may also have put his new World Bank post in jeopardy. <br /><br />Whatever their outcome, the upcoming elections are surely ones to watch. Zuma is a firebrand populist who, with the weight of an impending prosecution lifted off his shoulders, may decide it's time for a little payback. With a campaign song entitled Bring Me My Machine Gun, Zuma is certainly a man with a plan.<br /><br />(First published April 8th in World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-78268834157900499742009-07-23T12:28:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:30:13.058-07:00Niger Delta Once Again on the BrinkNigerian President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua proposed amnesty last Thursday for Niger Delta rebels willing to lay down their arms. The move has all the trapping of an attempt to deflect international criticism of what's to come: There are reports that the Nigerian army's special Niger Delta Joint Task Force is gearing up for what looks like a new attempt -- codenamed Operation Restore Hope -- to clamp down on the militant activity which has disrupted Nigeria's oil output by about a million barrels per day. (Even taking into account recent declines in the price of oil, that's real money.) <br /><br />However, with promptness and restraint, spokespeople for MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta), the largest and best-organized of the rebel groups, have suggested that it is the government that should be asking for amnesty. For their part, they would not agree to any kind of peace talks unless they were internationally managed and mediated by a respected global figure. <br /><br />For an administration that has not exactly shown much imagination in terms of new directions or initiatives for Nigeria's 150 million inhabitants, the Niger Delta might be the most difficult and risky issue to tackle. The Niger Delta rebels have been gaining strength and acting with impunity for several years. As things currently stand, falling oil prices represent a greater threat to them than the Nigerian army. <br /><br />Even if the army did manage to establish an operational center in the Delta, militant community leaders could easily use the thousands of disaffected youth who form a shadow army of resistance to harass it. <br /><br />Until Yar-Adua's government comes up with a comprehensive program for the fair and transparent distribution of oil wealth into the communities of the Delta, MEND and MEND-wannabes are going to be taking hostages, bunkering oil and blowing things up, no matter what the army attempts to do. The rebels don't want amnesty, they want justice. But anarchy might suit them just as well.<br /><br />(First published April 6, 2009 in World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-8294484542355741282009-07-23T12:24:00.001-07:002009-07-23T12:27:00.348-07:00Al - Bashir Among FriendsSudanese President Omar al-Bashir certainly thumbed his nose at the International Criminal Court (ICC) with his whirlwind round of whistle-stops in Egypt, Eritrea and Libya last week. Now in a further bit of political theatre, he is in Doha, Qatar this week, along with most -- but not all -- of the leaders of the Arab League. Notably absent is Egyptian President Hosni Mubarek, who is still fuming with the Qataris over disagreements surrounding the recent Gaza crisis and also by the fact that the Iranians were invited. <br /><br />Al-Bashir's presence in Doha will also be something of an embarrassment for U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, also a guest at the conference. Ban must dance delicately around the issue of the Security Council-inspired ICC indictment against al-Bashir, and the fact that al-Bashir is still the head of a U.N. member state. <br /><br />Qatar is a U.S. ally and host to a large U.S. military presence. But along with most other Arab states, the Qataris have not signed the treaty that would authorize them to turn over al-Bashir. No matter how irksome al-Bashir's presence might be to the U.S., the State Department is unlikely to put much pressure on the Qataris regarding al-Bashir, since there is too much at stake for U.S. strategic interests in keeping Qatar in the friend column.<br /><br />ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has dismissed al-Bashir's forays out of Sudan as acts of desperation, claiming that the Sudanese leader "can't travel far." Nevertheless it is clear that al-Bashir, unlike other indictees, has strong international support as well as the backing of superpower China. The show of support for al-Bashir in Doha does not seem so much an act of desperation as a carefully orchestrated public relations move to show the people of Sudan that he is still in charge. More importantly, it is meant to demonstrate to Moreno-Ocampo, who al-Bashir has characterized as a "neo-colonialist," that the rule-of-law is not a universal concept. <br /><br />President Barack Obama has said he will review the U.S.' reluctance to sign on to the ICC, which the Bush administration characterized as contrary to America's interests and constitutional prerogatives. American adhesion will go a long way toward adding teeth to the ICC's jurisdiction. In the meantime, each time al-Bashir pops out of Sudan, the ICC will seem more like a talk-shop and less the global sheriff it would like to be.<br /><br />(First published March 30, 2009 in World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-18687407243627518162009-07-23T12:20:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:23:34.584-07:00Sarkozy's African Diplomacy<span style="font-weight:bold;">PARIS</span> -- French President Niocolas Sarkozy made a whistle-stop at the Congolese parliament yesterday, in the midst of his three-nation tour of Central Africa. Last January, he ruffled feathers in Kinshasha by suggesting that Congo needed to share its mineral wealth with Rwanda as a step towards bringing peace to the Kivu region.<br /><br />This time around, he soothed Congolese egos by praising President Kabila's breakthrough peace initiative with Rwanda's President Paul Kagame, which has resulted in a significant decline in violence in the region. He also suggested that Congo, with all its mineral wealth, could play a regional the leadership role.<br /><br />Lest we forget what the visit is all about, though, Sarko's retinue is comprised of several business leaders, including the head of Areva, one of France's largest uranium processors. A country that gets more than 80 percent of its electricity from nuclear power -- (18 percent of which it exports -- can hardly let all of Congo's uranium fall into foreign hands (China's for instance).<br /><br />It's not clear whether Sarkozy will also seek to mend fences with Rwandan President Kagame in their feud of mutual recriminations over the causes of, and culpability, for the Rwandan genocide. French newspaper Le Monde certainly doesn't help things by continuing to refer to the Rwandan leader as "Tutsi President Paul Kagame."<br /><br />Hopefully President Sarkozy was able to take in a concert at the Kinshasha Symphony Orchestra before he left town.<br /><br />(First published in World Politics Review, March 27, 2009)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-3567744469050954882009-07-23T12:17:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:19:25.230-07:00Liberia's 'Guarantors of Instability'<span style="font-weight:bold;">MONROVIA,</span> Liberia -- I haven't read Paul Collier's new book, "Wars, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places," but I did catch Human Rights Watch Executive Director Kenneth Roth's review in the Sunday Times. Sitting here in Monrovia, a chill went up my spine, because according to Roth/Collier, Liberia has many of the elements that are guarantors of instability: a weak press, poor performing legal structures, ineffectual civic institutions, high levels of corruption and extreme poverty. <br /><br />There is no doubt that the Sirleaf government is legitimate, even in the eyes of its harshest critics. Its big test, however, will come in the elections of 2011, when the opposition points out at all the things it hasn't achieved, and resuscitates the volatile issue of "national identity."<br /><br />President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf will likely win the election in 2011 if she chooses to run. For the sake of ordinary Liberians, it will be much better if the results are a well-validated landslide. As we have seen in other developing country's elections, which are documented in Collier's book, the election process itself can exacerbate ethnic tensions that easily bubble over into bloodshed. (Last week's deadly political riots between rival political groups in Sierra Leone are a grim example.)<br /><br />Collier's thesis seems to be that elections themselves are never necessarily a sign of stable structures, and in many cases are quite the opposite. This will obviously be something of a slap in the face to all the international aid groups that have seemingly been wasting their donors' money on counterproductive election-promotion activities. Collier believes that elections in fragile democracies will only take hold if foreign actors guarantee the results and protect the legitimate government from subsequent coups, even if it means military intervention. Without this stick, the carrot of grabbing power will always be too sweet for the losers to ignore.<br /><br />(First published in World Politics Review, March 25th 2009)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-53500128964812168872009-07-23T12:15:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:16:58.024-07:00US Liberians Rejoice, Their Countrymen Worry<span style="font-weight:bold;">MONROVIA</span>, Liberia -- While steering us through the melee of downtown traffic yesterday, a Liberian friend who runs a local NGO casually remarked that if the United States were to relax its visa restrictions, everyone in Liberia would pack their bags and head Stateside. I think he was only half-kidding.<br /><br />While there have been some positive signs of development -- newly paved roads, more businesses and that most potent sign of economic empowerment, sushi bars -- the situation for most Liberians seems pretty precarious.<br /><br />Last Thursday, Ellen Margarethe Løj, the U.N. special representative for Liberia, painted a pretty cautionary picture for anyone thinking that Liberia was fully on the road to recovery. Løj did characterize the current security situation as "relatively stable." But she pointed to the possible consequences an economic downturn will have on the seemingly intractable problem of unemployed youth, who she believes may be easy prey for criminal gangs or coup-plotters.<br /><br />Løj also pointed out the instability within all three of Liberia's neighbors: Guinea, Ivory Coast, and now Sierra Leone as a consequence of last week's political rioting in Freetown. It is impossible to isolate Liberia from its neighbors, but thankfully the U.N. seems to be committed to maintaining its sizable peacekeeping presence here at least through the next elections in 2011.<br /><br />On the other hand, the news for the sizable Liberian community in the U.S. is decidedly more upbeat. Yesterday, President Barack Obama signed an executive order extending the stay of some 3500 Liberians who were set for deportation when their Temporary Protected Status was set to run out on March 31. There are tens of thousands of Liberians living in the United States legally, and thousands more who are flying under the radar. In any case, those under the TPS statute, which was previously renewed by former President Bush, can breathe easier for at least another year.<br /><br />For their fellow countrymen back home, who met yesterday's news either with indifference or a slight sigh of envy, the breathing is not getting any easier: Too many of them are standing under storm clouds without an umbrella.<br /><br />(First published in World Politics Review March 23, 2009)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-64984927765630280952009-07-23T12:11:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:14:45.101-07:00Liberia Tunes Into China<span style="font-weight:bold;">MONROVIA,</span> Liberia -- One of the most interesting developments in post-war Liberia over the past three years has been the emergence of the Chinese presence. In addition to building themselves a lavish new embassy, the Chinese have been making major investments in education and infrastructure. On the way in from the airport last night, I passed several road crews working under flood lights, each with a nattily dressed Chinese foreman guiding the effort.<br /><br />Another of their more visible projects is a $4 million investment in the rebuilding of the Liberian government's radio broadcasting network. In exchange for all the new towers and transmitters, the Chinese are permitted to broadcast their English language China Radio International programming throughout the country. The only other nationwide broadcasts are those from the U.N. military mission and from the Liberian government itself. No independent media has the resources for country-wide coverage.<br /><br />One of the benefits of the Chinese programming is that you get to hear voices like Zhang Ming, a senior member of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. He was expressing the growing concern in China about the amount of U.S. debt on their books and suggested that China might like to swap some of their $739 billion in treasury bonds for shares in the partially nationalized banks. (Why not let some state socialist pros show us how its done?) He also said they would like to diversify their debt portfolio but the options, except for the Euro-market, are not very tantalizing. He was speaking like a man with a boat-anchor attached to his neck, with the anchor itself perched unsteadily on the bow.<br /><br />As for the Liberians, self-described as America's "best friends in Africa," their general attitude towards the U.S. financial debacle is one of sympathy. But I get the impression that the implications for them haven't sunk in yet. <br /><br />President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have yet to organize their team for Africa, but one of their top priorities has to be how we are going to strategically respond to China's moves throughout the continent and how we are going to engage with countries like Liberia that clearly need help wherever they can get it.. This week's politically motivated rioting in next-door Sierra Leone and the coup in Madagascar are ominous reminders for Liberians, who want to believe that their most serious troubles are behind them. They also don't want to believe that the financial debacle in the U.S. means we are going to abandon them once again.<br /><br />(First published in World Politics Review March 19th, 2009)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-6458940252517811112009-07-23T12:10:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:11:44.824-07:00Madagascar's Real-Life Blood FeudMost Americans know about Madagascar, located in the Indian ocean off the coast of Africa, from the eponymous Disney animal movie featuring the feuding lemurs and fossas. Indeed, the fauna of the world's 4th-largest island is spectacular. The human side of Madagascar, on the other hand, is not such a fun place these days.<br /><br />In what is amounting to a blood feud in which over 100 people have died, President Marc Ravalomanana refuses to cede power to Andry Rajoelina, the upstart former mayor of Antananarivo, the island's capital. (Rajoelina is also a former DJ and media owner.) For the moment, the military has been trying to stay somewhat fair and balanced. But should the conflict linger, the general staff is likely to divide into factions, with growing support for the overthrow efforts by Rajoelina.<br /><br />By African standards, this is a pretty tame affair. But for Madagascar, a place of recent political instability but decent economic growth, the conflict is a disaster. Looming near the bottom of the world's poverty tables, Madagascar has recently been benefiting from major investments from mining giant Rio Tinto and energy behemoth Exxon Mobil. In addition, in a move that has sparked some of the protests, the government of Ravalomanana has leased 3 million acres of prime farmland -- about half the size of Belgium -- to Korean super-conglomerate Daewoo.<br /><br />The Rio Tinto Mineral Sands project is the largest foreign investment in the island's history. It has, however, come under a withering attack by environmental group Friends of the Earth and London-based Panos. Exxon Mobil also came under some heat from Greenpeace last year for allegedly killing melon-headed whales with its advanced echo sounding equipment and will surely face more environmental challenges once it begins drilling in earnest. <br /><br />The feud between the president and the upstart mayor seems to be more about personal egos and power needs than anything else. The basis for the criticism of the president seems to surround his lavish life style and "lack of caring" for the island's almost 20 million poor. Depending upon which way the army swings, the mayor could find himself assuming power in the coming weeks or be forced into exile.<br /><br />As in so many poor African countries, power is a zero-sum game about control of the country's riches. No matter who comes out on top, it is not likely to affect the lives of Madagascar's poor. The only real effect will be to slow down investments, and to drive away the tourists who would like to see the lemurs and fossas in person but who will now have to content themselves with the Disney version.<br /><br />(First published in World Politics Review March 16, 2009)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-5296549395394511222009-07-23T12:08:00.000-07:002009-07-23T13:27:27.481-07:00Development by Assassination in Guinea-BissauReporting from Guinea-Bissau in Tuesday's NY Times, Lydia Polgreen cites an anonymous diplomat to the effect that as far as the locals are concerned, the tit-for-tat killings of the president and the head of the Army last week may "be the best shot at stability that Guinea-Bissau has had in a long time." <br /><br />That is an astounding assertion. How bad must a country be for the killing of its two most powerful figures to be a cause for optimism? But Guinea-Bissau is no ordinary place. Ranked fifth from the bottom in terms of poverty and with no natural resources to speak of, the government's economic development plan seems to have been to forge alliances with Colombian drug traffickers who wanted new routes to move their product into Europe. Taking advantage of the archipelago's coastline and lack of any meaningful oversight, the South American, Nigerian and Asian drug gangs have all conspired to turn Guinea-Bissau into the world's first narco-state. (See Joe Kirschke's WPR series from September 2008: Part I here, Part II here, Part III here.)<br /><br />Whether the killings were caused by tribal rivalries or were contract hits ordered by the drug barons, the bottom line is that the country's new leaders will have to decide quickly how they are going to deal with a destitute population, a non-existent economy and a drug pipeline estimated to be almost a billion a year. <br /><br />(First published March 12, 2009 in World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-1018862443617677542009-07-23T12:06:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:07:03.834-07:00Road Deaths Are a Way of Life in AfricaThe tragic highway accident last Friday that killed Susan Tsvangirai and injured her husband, Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, is under investigation by officials from Tsvangirai's party, the Movement for Democratic Change. Early indications, however, are that the accident was the result of bad luck and worse timing for all involved, not foul play. The bitter irony, as reported in the New York Times, is that the truck that swerved head on into the Tsvangirai's SUV to aovid a pot hole was delivering anti-retroviral drugs for AIDS treatment -- the kind of mission that Tsvangarai has consistently encouraged.<br /><br />Accidents of this type are horrifyingly frequent across the continent. They are caused by a perfect storm of poor roads, defective vehicles and aggressive or incompetent driving. As a U.S. Dept of Transportation report illustrates, the bloody reality is that while Africa has only 4 percent of the world's vehicles, it accounts for 10 percent of international road fatalities. Compare that to the so-called developed world of Western Europe, the U.S. and Japan, which accounts for only 14 percent of road fatalities despite owning 44 percent of the world's cars. This is a staggering difference. Only the Middle East even comes close to Africa's numbers.<br /><br />Most of the horror stories that make the round among colleagues who travel frequently to Africa do not involve crime or exotic diseases. Instead they are tales of near-death experiences involving cars whose engines simply fall out or whose brakes give way, at night while traveling at high speeds on unlit, pot-holed roads. Most of the vehicles one finds in a place like Liberia -- unless you work for the Toyota Land Cruiser-laden U.N. or some well-heeled NGO -- are cast-offs or hand-me-downs from the U.S. or Europe, well past their expiration date before they were ever put into a container and shipped to Monrovia. <br /><br />The situation has gotten so drastic that the Liberian legislature recommended that no car over 10 years old be imported into the country. Like almost every law in Liberia, people will find ways of skirting it. Meaning Africa will most likely remain at the head of the road-fatality tables for the foreseeable future.<br /><br />On the other hand, while the chances of dying in a traffic accident in Africa are high, the likelihood of being the victim of a political assassination in Zimbabwe is actually pretty low. According to World Almanac figures (via Wikipedia), modern Zimbabwe has only had one high-profile political assassination of note, back in 1983, and the victim was not even a Zimbabwean citizen. <br /><br />Of course, road fatalities and political assassinations are both seriously under-reported. That should give pause to both Zimbabwe's motorists as well as opponents of President Mugabe.<br /><br />(First published March 9, 2009 in World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-707293157119261372009-07-23T12:03:00.002-07:002009-07-23T12:05:07.695-07:00Human Rights vs. Human Life in SudanIn 2007, author David Reiff wrote an op-ed for the Los Angeles Times in which he said, in reference to the situation in Darfur, that at some point the interests of humanitarians and human rights advocates will diverge. In Khartoum yesterday, that is exactly what happened. <br /><br />While organizations like Save Darfur content and Amnesty International were trumpeting their victory, baseline humanitarian organizations like Oxfam and MSF International scrambled to distance themselves from the ICC indictment. The simple reason is that the man under indictment, President al-Bashir, had just ordered the expulsion of almost all foreign NGOs.<br /><br />Reiff argued that in their quest for the holy-grail of justice, foreign human rights activists often lose sight of the needs of people on the ground. What's more, they often see things which just aren't there. For example, writing two years ago, which was well into the Darfur crisis, Reiff said that "some of the mainline relief NGOs, notably Doctors Without Borders, . . . disputed the assertion that what's going on in Darfur is, in fact, genocide." <br /><br />The counterargument runs that humanitarians, in their dedication to saving lives at all costs, often overlook the bigger picture, leading them to oppose options, like military interventions, that might more quickly resolve the crisis.<br /><br />Obviously, in the mind of the Sudanese government, there has been collusion going on between the two camps. Rather than expend the effort to parse everything out, the humanitarian baby is getting tossed out with the human rights bathwater. <br /><br />I've been in on these debates in university lecture halls, where the call for "muscular humanitariansm" gets the crowd's blood boiling. But now seeing what the consequences are in the real world makes me shudder.<br /><br />There is not going to be a military intervention in the Sudan anytime soon, and organizations like the African Union and the People's Republic of China are going to scream bloody murder to get the ICC to back down. In the end they just might succeed.<br /><br />As usual, the lives of the innocent hang in the balance.<br /><br />(First published Mar 6, 2009 in World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-47740341052544376572009-07-23T12:00:00.000-07:002009-07-23T12:02:29.539-07:00African Leaders Reject Bashir IndictmentThe International Criminal Court indicted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on five counts of crimes against humanity and two counts of war crimes yesterday, but not on the more dramatic charge of genocide. The indictment did not meet with universal approval among Africa's leaders, nor, strangely enough, with the son of the Rev. Billy Graham.<br /><br />According to a quick survey conducted by the French newspaper Le Monde, there were serious misgivings about the indictment coming from all corners of the continent.<br /><br />According to the article, Jean Ping, chairman of the African Union Commission, called the indictment a "threat to peace in Sudan." He went on to say that he felt that the rules of conflict were not being applied fairly, using Iraq, Gaza, Colombia and the Caucasus as examples. His position was shared by Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade, who said the ICC seemed to be "only after Africans." The Ugandan foreign minister said that the warrant should be suspended "in order to find a compromise between assigning punishment and finding peace." The government of Ethiopia, Sudan's neighbor, simply stated that the indictment "doesn't help the peace process in Darfur."<br /><br />Franklin Graham, speaking from the heart about his personal encounters with the Sudanese president, thinks al Bashir is a reasonable man who is willing to compromise. (Funny enough, that's what the Rev. Pat Robertson of 700 Club fame said back in the day about another African despot and ICC indictee, Liberia's Charles Taylor.) <br /><br />For the other African leaders, I think they care less about the guilt or innocence of al-Bashir and more about the Court's proclivity to focus its lens on the sub-Sahara. They might have a point. In the end, the ICC will only go where the Security Council allows it to go. The U.S. would likely block any attempts to indict Israelis over Gaza, and the Russians would block attempts to indict over Chechnya. Once again, Africans feel they are being humiliated by the former colonial powers. <br /><br />The rest of the world might feel good that one more bad guy might ultimately face judgment, but will justice be truly served if war criminals from powerful nations are free to walk, while Africans are left hanging in the breeze? Yes, I remember Milosevic. But there are hundreds more non-Africans worthy of the honor of being "served" by the ICC.<br /><br />(First published March 5, World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6389988617851011778.post-63053871719816112092009-07-23T11:57:00.000-07:002009-07-23T11:58:53.763-07:00Congo in the Eye of the StormTwo reports from the Eastern Congo illustrate the difficulty of covering events in that part of the world, or perhaps just the difficulty of doing some fact checking before going into print. In the New York Times, Jeffrey Gettleman, who either has a death wish or is vying for the crown of how many 'worst' places he can visit in the shortest amount of time, reports that in the wake of the Rwandan incursion over the last few months peace has finally returned. <br /><br />Over at the BBC, however, U.N. spokespersons are claiming that Hutu rebel groups have been moving back into areas they were recently booted from, once again raping and pillaging in their wake. The report does take pains to point out that the rebel groups are not taking up fixed positions and scurry back into the forest after committing their atrocities. Frankly, given the U.N.'s recent track record in the region, I'm hard pressed to believe anything they have to say, but I hope we can safely assume that peacekeepers know war when they see it.<br /><br />In the end, we're left to wonder what is really going on in the Congo. Has Kagame's bold move finally brought some stability along the border regions, or is this "peace" just a prelude to more chaos? My feeling about this conflict is that it has always been more about control of natural resources than protecting Congolese Tutsis. Rwandan business interests have their fingerprints all over Kivu and have been using the ethnic tension issue as a smokescreen to solidify their economic interests. This is just speculation, but so, it seems, is much else of what we are reading from the region.<br /><br />In any event, the Ugandan incursion is yet to end, so for now, the storm continues.<br /><br />(First published March 4, 2009 in World Politics Review)Michael Keatinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13655336895863572594noreply@blogger.com0